Yildirim, Ertugrul | Ozturk, Zafer

Conference Object | 2014 | 3RD CYPRUS INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH (CY-ICER 2014)143 , pp.1020 - 1024

After the oil shock of 1973, studies on causal nexus between oil price and economic growth have increasingly appeared in the literature. Unlike extant literature, this study deals with two problems related to causality estimation. The first one is which oil price should be used in empirical analyses as the price of oil differs among different oil products. Instead of crude oil price, oil basket price calculated by OPEC was used in this paper since it does not exclude the price of other oil types. Second problem is that positive and negative shocks in the independent variables may asymmetrically affect dependent variable. Distinguish . . .ing positive and negative shocks may lead to different findings. Moreover asymmetric causality test may lead to inference about the sign of the causal nexus. In this study asymmetric causal links were taken into account using the novel asymmetric causality approach developed by Hatemi-J (2012). Furthermore non-normality of the error term and time varying volatility may lead to biased estimation results. So a bootstrap simulation approach developed by Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) was used to generate critical values that are robust to non-normality and time-varying volatility. In addition, classical non-asymmetric causality test was applied with the aim of comparison. The monthly data set covers the period of 2003:1-2013:1. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/) Daha fazlası Daha az

Kesikoglu, Ferdi | Yildirtm, Ertugrul

Conference Object | 2014 | 3RD CYPRUS INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH (CY-ICER 2014)143 , pp.1064 - 1069

Since energy is unavoidable source in production process, the rapid increase in oil price leads to several economic problems such as security of energy supply, rising foreign-dependency, increase in energy bills, current account deficit and a decrease in economic growth. Therefore countries aspire to energy diversification in energy consumption since the oil shock of 1973. In this context use of natural gas instead of oil is a policy tool. So this study examines the causal relations among the rate of natural gas consumption to oil consumption, economic growth and current account balance for 11 OECD countries (Australia, Finland, Fra . . .nce, Germany, Greece, South Korea, Mexico, Netherland, Switzerland, United Kingdom and United States. and the period of 1980-2012. The panel data causality test developed by Konya (2006) was used since it is good enough to account for both cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity among the countries in the sample. Furthermore the method estimated country specific critical values using bootstrap simulation. According to achieving findings, there is unidirectional causal relation from the ratio of natural gas/oil consumption to current account balance for Switzerland. A one way causal nexus was found from the ratio of natural gas/oil consumption to economic growth in the case of South Korea and Netherland. There is unidirectional causal relation from economic growth to the ratio of natural gas/oil consumption in the pattern of Switzerland. Lastly no causal nexus found from current account balance to the ratio of natural gas/oil consumption. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-ncl/3.0/) Daha fazlası Daha az

Bayramoglu, Arzu Tay

Conference Object | 2014 | 3RD CYPRUS INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH (CY-ICER 2014)143 , pp.1058 - 1063

Agricultural commodity prices experienced higher increases beginning in the second half of the 2000s. The rises were fueled by numerous factors, high energy prices, weak dollar, investment fund activity, the combination of adverse weather conditions, the diversion of some food commodities to the production of biofuels, and government policies such as, including export bans and prohibitive taxes brought global stocks of many food commodities down to low levels. Extreme price spike and volatility in agricultural commodity prices creates negative effects on macroeconomic instability, posing a threat to food security in many countries. . . .In Turkey, agricultural employment rate, which has been decreasing since the mid-90s, unexpectedly rose between 2006-2009, and it is continuing to increase. In this context this paper analyzes that is there any relation between agricultural employment, and international agricultural commodity price increases in Turkey by using VAR method. Results show that there is a relationship between agricultural commodity prices and agricultural employment. Also we have empirical evidence about the relation between agricultural and non-agricultural employment. It is indicated that agricultural employment effects on non-agricultural employment but the opposite effect is not valid. 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org.licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/) Daha fazlası Daha az