Global macroeconomic determinants of the domestic commodity derivatives

Basarir C. | Bayramoglu M.F.

Book Part | 2018 | Contributions to Economics , pp.331 - 349

Countries compete with products which have an absolute advantage in foreign trade operations. Also, there are derivative financial instruments derived from these products in many developing financial markets. Thus, these products provide opportunities for investors such as speculation, arbitrage, and particularly hedging with the help of trading in derivative markets. The trading of these products on derivative markets also brings about the impact of global parameters on spot markets, as well as on futures markets. Hence, it is important for both real investors and financial investors to determine and observe the major macroeconomic . . . variables that affect these products. This chapter aims to determine macroeconomic variables which affect domestic (local) commodity derivatives such as banana (Central America and Ecuador), palm oil (Malaysia), rice (Thailand), and tea (Kenya). Thereby when the market efficiency is weak or almost absent, the ability to lower the fragility against risks faced by the investors and the other related parties by maintaining advance information is analyzed. For this purpose, K* (K Star) algorithm as a data mining method which is one of the knowledge-based analysis techniques is used in the analysis. In this chapter, four derivative products were estimated by the K* algorithm, which predicts whether their direction will decrease or increase during the next 18 months. The results show that the K* algorithm predicts an accuracy of 66.7–72.2% for three of the four domestic commodity derivatives so that this algorithm is successful in identifying similar properties between global macroeconomic variables and domestic commodity derivatives. © Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2018 Daha fazlası Daha az

What are relations between the domestic macroeconomic variables and the convertible exchange rates?

Kartal C. | Bayramoglu M.F.

Book Part | 2018 | Contributions to Economics , pp.465 - 483

Worldwide foreign trade operations and financial investment activities are realized as convertible currencies. The level of exchange rate volatility may be higher in developing countries than in developed countries. This situation can be seen both in the real sector and in the financial sector. In the real sector, especially companies that meet their raw material and intermediary needs through import are affected by the exchange rate volatility, while the financial sector is more affected by exchange rate volatility in the markets with weak-efficiency levels. These determinant attributes reflect the characteristics of developing cou . . .ntries. Therefore, the identification of parameters that can provide knowledge about changes in exchange rates is important for both the real sector and the financial sector. Also, this knowledge is also important regarding increasing the effectiveness of exchange rate interventions, one of the instruments of monetary policy in modern central banking practices. This chapter aims to attain explanation capacity of domestic macroeconomic factors of convertible exchange rates and rules for the application made by OneR algorithm which is one of the data mining methods and the machine learning techniques. The reason for using only domestic macroeconomic variables and the exclusion of international macroeconomic variables in the study is that it is more frequent to attain knowledge about domestic macroeconomic variables which are estimated within the countries. Thus, it is aimed to increase the frequency of observing convertible exchange rates with the rules acquired by the OneR algorithm. It is also aimed to investigate whether the exchange rate movements included in this study can be modeled by using only domestic macroeconomic variables as a glocal approach. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, JPY/USD, and TRY/USD exchange rates are analyzed within the scope of the chapter. The findings of the chapter show that (1) the problem of estimation of the exchange rate movements is insufficient to solve by OneR algorithm; (2) it is seen that the success rate of the models with a relatively small number of input variables is higher in this application; therefore, the importance of the use of lean models is supported by the results of the chapter; and (3) in terms of the primary aim of the survey, Turkey’s domestic macroeconomic variables are not sufficient to explain convertible exchange rates. As the reasons for these findings, it can say that the Turkish economy is a developing economy and that the economy is small compared to developed country economies. © Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2018 Daha fazlası Daha az

Determining the priorities of CAMELS dimensions based on bank performance

Pekkaya M. | Demir F.E.

Book Part | 2018 | Contributions to Economics , pp.445 - 463

Banks’ performances are important not only for the stability/growth of the firms and economic situation of a country; it is also important for the stability/growth of the world economy. The aim of this study is to determine the priorities of CAMELS dimensions with respect to bank performance via AHP method and to present the results as an information to researchers, investors and decision-makers. Furthermore, this study shows the feasibility of many statistical hypothesis tests by separately generated priority series from expert’s views based on performance and bankruptcy risk of banks. CAMELS, used for bank performance appraisal, i . . .s a financial ratio analysis comparing the ratios of banks with the industries. Along with evaluating the determined priorities of CAMELS dimensions based on performance of banks, the differences of the views between the priorities based on risk of bankruptcy and performance of banks, the view differences according to the demographic characteristics of the experts, etc., are also examined. According to analysis, “Asset” (24.75%) is the most important dimension of CAMELS, and then “Earnings” (19.16%), “Liquidity” (18.54%) and “Management” (17.68%) are thought as following important dimensions with respect to bank performance. Dimensions of “Sensitivity to market risk” (11.11%) and “Capital” (10.03%) are observed as weak dimensions. © Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2018 Daha fazlası Daha az

The role of religion on tax revenue: A global religious perspective

Dökmen G.

Book Part | 2018 | Contributions to Economics , pp.191 - 208

The obligation of the government to provide public services raises the need for tax revenues. As the production factors increase mobility due to globalization, tax revenues have become even more critical. In this process, there has been an increase in the studies that analyze economic and behavioral factors that have an influence on tax revenue performance. In this study, the relationship between religion and tax revenues has been examined by panel data method using dummy variables for world religions. In countries with the highest Christian Protestant population have been found that their tax revenues are increasing. However, in co . . .untries where the population is predominantly Orthodox and Muslim, the tax revenues are decreasing due to various reasons. © Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2018 Daha fazlası Daha az

Assessing the twin and triple deficit hypotheses in developing economies: A panel causality analysis

Bayramoğlu A.T. | Öztürk Z.

Book Part | 2018 | Contributions to Economics , pp.209 - 225

Twin deficit hypothesis, regarding Keynesian and Ricardian perspective, introducing of the linkage between budget deficit and current account deficit is broadly investigated. The literature on triple deficits which advance twin deficit hypothesis by associating savings and fixed investments is limited. The aim of this chapter is to explore whether the twin and triple deficit hypotheses are valid in developing economies. To this end, the twin and triple deficit hypotheses are examined by testing Dumitrescu and Hurlin (Economic Modelling 29(4): 1450–1460, 2012) panel causality approach for 15 developing country economies. The Czech Re . . .public, Hungary, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Ukraine, Brazil, India, Malaysia, Slovak Republic, Romania, Poland, Russian Federation, South Africa, and Turkey were analyzed, and the period is between 2000 and 2015 in the study. According to the panel causality results, there is a unidirectional causality from budget deficit to current account deficit. It is concluded that hypothesis of twin deficits is valid for the country group analyzed. In the field of the triple deficit hypothesis, a strong interrelationship between domestic savings and the current account is reached, while a causal relationship between fixed capital investments and the current account balance cannot be determined. In this context, when considering domestic savings as the decisive variable in the saving-investment gap, it is concluded that the theory of triple deficit is partially valid for the group of developing countries. © Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2018 Daha fazlası Daha az

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